基于面板分位数回归模型的收入、利率对房价的影响关系研究

An Empirical Research about the Dynamic Influence of Income and Interest Rate on the Housing Price Based on Quantile Regression for Panel Data

房价波动不仅影响到人们的居住质量和生活水平,也关系着国民经济的健康发展和社会的和谐稳定。探讨房价波动的主要影响因素,一直是理论界和实务界关注的热点问题。在构建收入、利率对房价的影响机制模型的基础上,选取35个大中城市1999-2011年的样本数据,利用面板分位数回归模型进行了实证分析。结果表明,我国大中城市房价主要由收入拉动而非成本推动,收入是影响房价上涨的主要因素,利率变动对房价影响不显著;不同分位数水平下各影响因素作用大小具有明显差异,房价水平越高的城市,房价受收入影响作用越大,而受成本、人均GDP等因素影响程度越小。研究结论对不同城市依据自身特征采取相应的调控政策具有一定参考价值。

House price fluctuation affects the quality of people＇s living standards and be related to the healthy development of national economy and social harmony. Studying the main influence factors of housing price＇s fluctuation is always the major topic for theory researchers and the practitioners. The paper presents a model about the dynamic influence of income and interest rate on housing price considering the amount borrowed from the bank. Then it examines the influences with the method of quantile regression model using the panel data of 35 Chinese principal cities. The results show that it is the income rather than cost drives the housing price. Income is the main factor affecting the housing price while the coefficient of interest rate is not significant. And the level of influence is various in different quantile. The higher of the housing price, the larger of the effect of income while the smaller of the effect of cost and economic growth. The conclusion has important reference significance when the cities＇ governments propose corresponding policy according to their own characters.