房地产消费的泡沫研究

The Research of Economic Bubbles in the Real Estate

房地产业是国民经济最重要的构成部分。无论是对于投资还是消费,房地产业都有着极强的引导作用。关于中国房地产市场是否存在泡沫、房地产泡沫规模究竟有多大这类问题在学术界都是关注的焦点问题。房地产市场过度泡沫化会严重影响国民经济的正常发展,急剧膨胀的房地产泡沫也会为金融危机的爆发埋下众多隐患。因此,科学地分析房地产泡沫的情况,准确地判断房地产泡沫的膨胀趋势并采取适当的应对措施显得尤为重要。中国目前的房地产市场与日本20世纪六七十年代近似。文章对日本1955-2014年的全国平均市街地价格指数以及我国1998年4月到2014年12月的国房景气指数月度数据进行了分析研究,不仅可以实证检验中、日房地产市场波动状况,而且对我国房地产市场的发展及泡沫的预防也有所启示。

The real estate is one of the most essential components in national economy. It plays the leading and guiding role not only in the field of investment but also in the consumption. For most Chinese academics literatures, the focus of the research is whether the economic bubble exists in Chinese real estate markets, and what the scale of the relevant bubble is. To a certain extent, excessive property-valued bubble would be obstructive to the normal development of the national economy, even it would be worse to economic,because it has been linked with an increased risk of financial crisis. Therefore, it is important for researchers to analyze the situation of current property-valued bubble in China scientifically, estimate its expanding tendency precisely and adopt effective measures to deal with all potential threats. Due to the similarity between the Chinese recent real estate market and that of Japan in 1960 s and 1970 s, the research collected and analyzed the data of the National Average Index of Urban Land Price in Japan（ 1955-2014） and the data of monthly Real Estate Climate Index in China（1998-2014）. In this way, the fluctuation in both Chinese and Japanese real estate industry can be compared and verified with real evidences. Meanwhile, the results are expected to contain enlightenments on the development of Chinese real estate and the prevention of property-valued bubbles.