基于系统动力学的农村金融生态环境研究

Research of Rural Financial Ecological Environment Based on System Dynamics

农村金融生态环境建设作为农村金融改革的一项重要内容,有助于提升金融资源的配置和效率,推进农村金融改革的进程。研究综合考虑要素贡献度、模拟真实度和数据可得性,最终选用地区经济基础、金融发展、社会保障、社会文化环境、政府公共服务、金融部门独立性和社会中介发展七大要素,构建农村金融生态环境系统动力学模型,用Vensim PLE软件对其进行模拟和预测。另外,通过改变模型中的参数,对四大经济区进行了"政策敏感性实验"。实证结果表明,现阶段东部地区农村金融生态环境最优,东北地区最脆弱,中部和西部地区居中;四大经济区农村金融生态环境均逐步改善,但仍存在区域差异,且除东北地区外,区域差异随时间逐步扩大;不同地区、时间、政策侧重点对农村金融生态环境影响不同。

Rural Financial Ecological Environment Construction, as an important part tor rural financlalreform, plays a significant role in promoting the allocation and efficiency of relevant financial resources and in accelerating the process of rural financial reform. Based on previous research conducted by other scholars, this paper has taken element＇ s contribution degree, simulation＇ s authenticity, and data＇ s availability into full consideration, and even- tually focuses on seven major elements including the selected region＇ s economic base, financial development, so- cial security, soeio - cultural environment, government＇ s public service, financial department＇ s independence, and social medium＇ s development so as to establish a dynamics model for rural financial ecological environment system, conduct simulation and make relevant predictions by means of Vensim PLE. In addition, through changing corresponding parameters relating to the model, we＇ ve carried out “Policy Sensitivity Experiment” to four major e- conomic regions. As proved by the experiment＇ s results, rural financial ecological environment in the eastern re- gion has reached the best level at present while that in the northeast region the weakest, and the middle and western region the medium. However, improvement is gradually made in the four major economic regions, but it still varies in different regions. Except the northeast region, time. In conclusion, the impact exerted on rural such regional difference is continuously e financial ecological environment actually nlarging in the course of depends on different re-gions, time, and policy＇ s focus.