摘要
基于各类影子银行的被监管情况,对影子银行规模进行了全面测算,涵盖了表外理财、资金信托、小额贷款公司、融资性担保公司、新型网络公司、第三方理财机构等15类业务或机构。经测算,截至2014年6月末,我国广义影子银行规模为39.99万亿元。在此基础上,通过归纳影子银行的产生根源、业务类型、发展速度等特征,并以影子银行增速为变量,对宏观经济、投资、物价水平、货币供应量、资金价格进行脉冲分析,表明:影子银行对经济要素有一定的积极影响但不显著,对金融要素则产生了短期的、较为显著的正向影响。同时,影子银行还存在影响货币政策实施效果、缺乏科学的统计框架、容易产生风险等问题,建议理性看待影子银行的发展,通过深化金融改革创新、搭建科学全面的统计框架、实施疏堵有别的分类监管,多措并举防范其可能带给金融体系的不良影响。
Based on all kinds of shadow banking regulatory situation, the paper conducted a comprehensive measure on the scale of shadow banking in China, covering off - balance sheet financial products, trust funds, small loan companies, financing guarantee company, the new Interact companies, third - party financial institutions and so on. By estimated, as of the end of June 2014, China＇ s broad shadow banking size had been closed to 39. 99 trillion yuan. On this basis, by summing up the root cause, type of business, development speed and other charac- teristics of the shadow banking, and selecting the shadow banking growth as a variable, the paper analyzed the macroeconomic, investment, price level, money supply, cost of capital by Impulse Response. It showed that shad- OW banking have some positive effects on economic factors but not significantly, and have a short- term, the more significant positive influence on financial factors. Meanwhile, the shadow banking also created some problems, such as the effect of monetary policy implementation, lack of scientific statistical on. Therefore, we should have a rational view of the development of the shadow framework, prone to risk, and so banking cial reform and innovation, building a comprehensive statistical framework, implementing through deepening finan- the classification supervi-sion to prevent the adverse effects it may bring to the financial system.
出处
《经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第12期62-67,共6页
On Economic Problems
