我国农业面源污染的空间相关性及影响因素研究

Research on the Spatial Correlation and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Non- point Source Pollution in China

在考虑地理空间因素的情况下,选取我国省域农业的总化学需氧量和农业生产总值的统计数据,分析了农业经济活动的空间相关性,构造了农业生产的经济环境指数,并建立空间计量模型对影响我国经济环境指数的因素进行了实证研究。分析表明,我国省域经济环境指数具有较强的空间依赖性和正的空间溢出效应;化肥施用强度、畜禽养殖产值比重、农业技术水平对经济环境指数有显著的正向作用,不利于农业生产的可持续发展;经济作物种植面积比率对经济环境指数有显著的负向作用,有利于农业生产的可持续发展。

In considering the spatial factors, in this paper, we select the data of the China＇ s provincial agricul- tural non - point source pollution and economic statistics, analyze spatial correlation of the agricultural economic activities, construct economy environment index （EEI）in the agricultural production, and establish a spatial econo- metric model to make an empirical analysis of the factors which affecting China＇ s economy environment index. The analysis shows that, the provincial economy environment index in China possesses a strong spatial dependence and positive spatial spillover effect ; the intensity of fertilizer use, the proportion of Livestock and poultry production and the agricultural technology level with positive effect on economy environment index which is not conducive to the sustainable development of agricultural production ; economic crops planting area ratio with negative effect on the e- conomy environment index which is conducive to the sustainable development of agricultural production.