基于变权原理的矿业项目投资风险评价研究

Research on risk assessment of mining project investment based on variable-weight theory

在详细分析矿业项目投资风险来源及影响因素的基础上,对主要风险因素进行了识别;其次,建立了风险评价指标体系,运用德尔菲法(Delphi)确定了各项指标权重,并对各指标加以分级;引入变权理论,构建了矿业项目投资风险评价模型,并应用于江西某铜矿投资项目,得出该铜矿项目投资风险处于中等偏较低的等级。研究结果表明所建立的模型对项目投资风险评价具有可行性和有效性。

Based on a detailed analysis of the mining project in- vestment risk sources and influencing factors, the main risk fac- tors were identified. Then, the risk assessment index system was established to determine the weight of each index by the methodof Delphi （Delphi） and to classify the assessment index. Thirdly, the mining project investment risk assessment model was con- strueted with the introduction of variable-weight theory. Finally, investment in Jiangxi copper project is interpreted as an example to reach conclusion that the investment risk of the copper project is in middle-lower class. The results indicate that the model has its feasibility and effectiveness for project investment risk assess- ment.