考虑供应风险和生产成本不确定性的供应链动态决策研究

Supply Chain Decisions with Endogenous Effort Toreduce Supply Uncertainty and Unit Production Cost

考虑到供应风险和生产成本的不确定性,本文研究了买方或卖方实施努力既可能改善供应可靠性,同时又可能降低生产成本的供应链最优决策问题。分别构建了制造商努力和供应商努力的两阶段动态决策模型。分析了提升供应可靠性和降低成本的概率对两种模型中的最优采购数量、最优努力程度和上下游期望收益以及供应链期望收益的影响。同时在两种模型的比较中发现,制造商的最优努力与供应商的最优努力之间的差异与收益分享系数有关。相同努力效果下,制造商努力时的最优采购数量总是不小于供应商努力时的最优采购数量。相比供应商努力,制造商努力更有利于增加其自身的期望收益。然而,供应商以及整个供应链的期望收益却可能在供应商努力时更高。

Considering supply risks and production cost uncertainty,the optimal decisions of a manufacturer and a supplier when either of them can initiate effort endogenously to enhance the supply reliability and reduce the production cost with certain probabilities is studied in this paper.Two dynamic programming models- the manufacture-initiated effort model and the supplier-initiated effort model- are designed separately.For each model,the impacts of the success probabilities on the optimal purchasing quantity are analyzed,on the optimal effort level,on the supplier＇s and manufacturer＇s expected profits,and on the expected total supply chain profit.By comparing the two models,It s found that whether the manufacturer s optimal effort is greater than that of the supplier depends on the revenue-sharing parameter.The optimal purchasing quantity in manufacturer-initiated effort model is not less than that in supplier-initiated effort model.And the expected profit of manufacturer is higher in the manufacturer-initiated effort model,but the expected profits of the supplier and the supply chain could be higher in the supplier-initiated effort model.