2000-2010年北京市人口分布格局的时空演变分析

ANALYSIS ON THE SPACE-TIME EVOLUTION OF THE POPULATION DISTRIBUTION PATTERN IN BEIJING DURING 2000–2010

2004年制定的《北京城市总体规划(2004-2020)》规划了11个新城来承担疏解中心城区人口和功能。研究利用2000年"五普"和2010年"六普"北京街道、乡镇层面的数据,通过人口分布重心、人口分布空间自相关分析、人口密度分布模拟、人口密度和人口密度差分克里金插值等方法分析了2000年到2010年北京市人口分布格局的时空演变。结果显示:虽然和2000年相似,2010年北京人口密度呈Clark函数分布,是典型的单中心模式,但是在以上地为核心的海淀、朝阳、昌平三区接壤地带和以高碑店为核心的朝阳和通州区的走廊地带形成了人口快速增长的两个副中心。反而,总体规划中的11个副中心人口吸纳能力不如规划预期。同时,由于新形成的副中心和主中心的距离较近,有相互融合的态势,造成城市管理的压力加大。在总人口快速增长的背景下,有必要进一步采取多种政策强化11个副中心的建设。

The Beijing City Master Plan （2004 - 2020） that was formulated in 2004 planned 11 new towns to relieve the population and function pressure concentrated on the central city area. Based on the fifth and sixth census data at the levels of community, villages, and towns that were carried out in 2000 and 2010 respectively, the paper analyzes the space-time evolution of Beijing＇s population distribution pattern by applyingthe methods including the analysis on population distribution gravity center, the autocorrelation analysis on population spatial distribution, and the population density distribution simulation method. The result shows that although similar to 2000, the population density in 2010 shows a Clark function distribution pattern, which is a typical single-center model. But two secondary centers were formed in the connection area of the three districts including Haidian, Chaoyang, Changping, with Shangdi as the center, and the corridor area between Chaoyang and Tongzhou Districts, with Gaobeidian as the center. In contrast, the I I secondary centers failed to absorb as much population as planned. At the same time, since the distance between the newly formed secondary center and the primary center is rather short, the two centers show a tendency of integration, which brings more pressure on city management. Under the background of rapid population growth, it is necessary to enhance the construction of the 11 secondary centers through multiple countermeasures.