基于Logistic和Probit复杂环境下煤矿员工安全行为动态预警研究

Study on dynamic early warning of safety behaviors of coal mine employee based on the Logistic and Probit complex situation

通过对安徽两淮煤矿近几年煤矿特大事故统计分析得出,导致煤矿员工安全行为事故的影响因素众多。以安全行为科学、结构方程模型、Logistic和Probit回归为研究基础,构建复杂环境下煤矿员工安全行为预测模型,并进行动态分析。研究结果说明,煤矿员工安全行为受矿工所在环境和个人收入水平的影响,其中,矿工收入水平与安全行为能力呈正向线性关系,提高煤矿员工激励程度是降低员工事故发生率的可行途径。

It was obtained that the influence factor resulting in the safety behaviors accident of coal mine employee was numerous by statistics and analysis of especially serious accident in coal mines of Huainan and Huaibei in Anhui province in recent years. Based on the safety behav- ior science, structural equation model, Logistic and Probit regression, safety behaviors prediction model of coal mine employee in complex situation was established, and then the dynamical analy- sis by the model was carried out. The research results show that safety behaviors of coal mine employee are affected by miner＇s situation and personal income, and miner＇s income and safety be- haviors take on positive linear relationship, increasing the motivation degree of coal mining em- ployee is a feasible way to reduce employee accident rates.