中国15个副省级城市经济转型成效测度及影响因素分析

Effective Measure and Influence Factors Analysis in the Urban Economy Transition of 15 Deputy Provincial Cities of China

基于城市经济转型内涵,应用以综合赋权为基础的模糊物元模型和核密度估计模型等评价方法,对2000~2012年中国城市经济转型成效的时空格局演变进行分析。结果表明：1 2000~2012年中国经济转型低值地区发展速度提升较快,高值地区发展有减缓趋势,但整体呈现出较好的转型态势且区域间差距逐渐缩小。2005年特别是2008年金融危机以后取得成效并不显著。2城市经济发展水平稳步提升,但空间格局变化甚微。经济规模扩张度、结构优化度、发展持续度在空间上呈现正向变化,转型成效明显;经济效益提升度却呈现出正反向回旋式变化,说明转型中政府政策的实施存在时滞效应且转型对就业产生了一定的挤出效应。3城市经济转型的时空格局演变是多种因素综合作用的结果。历史性基础因素奠定了城市经济转型的基础,提升性动力因素为其注入了活力,二者相互作用共同决定了当前经济转型现状,未来影响城市经济转型的主要因素包括内生发展能力和政策导向因素。

At present, the world is progressing toward the economic recovery of the international financial crisis,which is also a major adjustment period in the international industrial division pattern, as well as the focus of the world economy and the contrast of economic power. The overall economic growth of advanced economies remains relatively weak. At the same time, with the rapid development of the economy and urbanization process of China since the implementation of the Reform and Opening-up, the high resource environment load,along with contradictions among urban, resources, environment and economic development, has forced us to deepen economic reform and transformation. It is of great significance for the urban economic transformation process to promote regional economic growth, as well as the quality and efficiency of the economic development. This article, based on the connotation of urban economic transformation, takes the 15 deputy provincial cities of China as the research object, builds an index system which includes four dimensions, and undertakes research on the effects of urban economic transformation in China from 2000 to 2012 by means of the fuzzy matter element model based on comprehensive weight and the European approach degree comprehensive evaluation method. Then the article analyzes the temporal and spatial differences based on the results, by using the kernel density estimation model, thereby revealing the inner change rules, and determining the following conclusions： 1） The low-value areas＇ development speed accelerates, while the high-value areas show a slow trend from 2000 to 2012 in the economic transformation of China. However, the overall pattern presents a good transition state, and the regional gap is narrowing. In 2005, especially after the 2008 financial crisis, the effects of urban economic transformation have been abating. 2） At the dimension level, urban economic development maintains a steady improvement, but the spatial pattern does not change significantly. At the same time, the expansion of economic scale, optimization of economic structure and degree of economic development show positive trends in the space, and the effects of transformation are obvious. In addition, the economic benefits of improving degree in the space shows a reverse rotary trend, which indicates that the implementation of the government policies in the process of transition exhibit a time-delay effect, and the transformation also produces a crowding-out effect of the society employment, which has a significant impact on the social investment and consumption, as well as the income of the residents. 3） The spatio-temporal evolution of urban economic transformation is the result of a large amount of factors. The historical basic factors lay the foundation for urban economic transformation, and the enhance power factors inject vitality into the urban economic transformation, while the interaction between the two factors jointly determines the current status of the economic transformation. The future of the urban economic transformation factors will be composed of the development ability in the region and the administrative factor. At the macro level, the administrative leading factor has a guiding effect on the economy;while at the micro level, urban development ability plays a core role, and the strategic positioning and improvement of the system and mechanism are important factors also affecting the urban economic transformation.