“北极航道”开通与中国及其受影响区域的贸易增长潜力分析

THE IMPACT OF USING THE ARCTIC ROUTE ON TRADE IN CHINA AND ITS ACCESSIBLE AREAS

在考虑船舶等待时间和海冰因素的基础上,以航行时间替代航运距离,对传统的贸易引力模型进行修正,量化评估了"北极航道"开通对中国及其受影响区域的贸易增长潜力。结果表明:(1)航行时间与进出口总额之间呈负相关关系,航行时间每减少1%,将使中国的进出口贸易总额增加0.6590%;(2)海冰因素会对贸易潜力的提升产生较大影响。在存在海冰的情况下,由于"北极航道"在航运距离上的天然优势,将使中国的贸易潜力增长10.95%,使中国受影响的北部沿海地区和东部沿海地区的贸易潜力分别增长12.02%和11.22%;一旦海冰消融、"北极航道"全面通航,中国及其受影响的北部沿海地区和东部沿海地区的贸易潜力则会得到进一步提升,提升效应将达到20%以上。

This study used a modified gravity model to investigate the impact of waiting time and sea ice cover on shipping in terms of trade potential in China and the impact of using Arctic navigation. In this model, sailing time was substituted for shipping distance to quantitatively evaluate the impact of using the Arctic route. The model results showed a negative correlation between sailing time and the total value of imports and exports. If sailing time was re- duced by 1%, the total volume of imports and exports was increased by 0. 659 0%. The presence of sea ice has a great impact on trade potential. With the present levels of sea ice, using the Arctic route could increase the trade potential of China by an average of 10.95%, and the area accessible for trade could be increased by 12.02% for the northern coastal area and 11.22% for the eastern coastal area. If the sea ice continues to decline as expected and results in complete opening of the Arctic route, China＇ s trade potential will likely increase by 20% or more in terms of accessible areas.