模糊综合评价法在生态安全预警评价中的应用——以河北省围场县为例

Application of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to early-warning assessment of ecological security:A case study in Weichang County of Hebei Province

基于2003-2012年围场县的经济、水环境、土地资源、自然资源等相关数据,运用P-S-R模型从压力、状态、响应3方面构建围场县生态安全预警指标体系,采用模糊评价法并结合预警指数和警度标准对2003-2012年围场县生态安全警情状况进行分析。结果表明,2003-2012年围场县生态安全预警指数总体上呈波动上升态势,预警指数由2003年的5.278 1上升到2012年的6.809 1,处于"轻警"状态,趋于预警状态。就压力、状态、响应各子系统而言,2003-2012年围场县生态安全的压力指标、状态指标和响应指标的预警指数呈上升趋势,发展趋势良好。

Based on the data from 2003 to 2012 related to economy,water environment,land and natural resources of Weichang County,pressure-state-response model is used to construct an ecological security early-warning indicator system of Weichang County from three aspects-pressure,state and response.Fuzzy evaluation method combined with early-warning index and warning degree standard are applied to analyze the ecological security alarm conditions of Weichang County from 2003to2012.The results show that the ecological security warning index of Weichang County generally has a fluctuating upward trend from 2003 to 2012,and the value rises from 5.278 1in 2003 to 6.809 1in 2012,which means the county is in the ＂light warning＂ state,tending to the warning state.In terms of pressure,state,response subsystems,the early-warning index of pressure,state and response is on the rise from 2003 to 2012,which indicates a good development trend.