我国财政政策是否起到“自动稳定器”作用——基于区制转移DSGE模型实证分析

Does China's Fiscal Policy Play“Automatic Stabilizers”:A Study Based on Regime Switching DSGE Model

本文构建财政政策和货币政策区制转移特征的DSGE模型,考察我国财政货币政策在不同时期联合动态效应,回答我国财政政策在不同时期是否起到"自动稳定器"作用,并对我国在不同区制下静态和动态财政政策乘数进行测算,同时对我国2008—2010年的四万亿财政政策效果进行了评价。研究发现:(1)区制转移模型下财政政策和货币政策反应系数结果说明我国在经济高涨期和经济衰退期采用货币政策调控主要目标是产出,对通货膨胀容忍较高,我国财政政策对政府发行债券收入反应非常不敏感,税收与政府支出及产出间关系密切;(2)模型脉冲响应结果说明在不同体制下我国政府支出影响均衡的传导是相同的,我国财政政策实施能够使主要经济变量受到冲击后回到均衡状态;(3)对我国财政政策乘数测算结果小于以往学者测算结果,我国四万亿财政政策实施效果模拟显示政策拉动了产出,四万亿投资较好地熨平了金融危机对我国经济产生的意外冲击,对经济产生了积极的正向影响,负面效应则是同时挤出了私人消费,通货膨胀加剧。

This paper constructs the DSGE model of fiscal policy and monetary policy area transfer characteristics, examines the combined effects of fiscal and monetary policies in different periods, and answers the ＂automatic stabilizer＂ function in different periods. The district transfer model under the financial policy adjustment and control of the main target is the output of the economic boom and the economic downturn, the impact of fiscal policy is the same, and the impact of fiscal policy on the main economic variables are the same as the government＇s revenue and expenditure ; the impact of major economic variables and the results are less than the past scholars. The impact on the economy of our country has positive effect on the economy, but the negative effect is compressing the private consumption and inflation are increased.