差异化预期、政策调控与房价波动——基于中国35个大中城市的实证研究

Differentiated Expectations,Policy Regulation and Housing Price Fluctuations:An Empirical Study of 35 Large and Medium-sized Cities in China

文章在住房存量调整模型的基础上,基于住房供给方为理性预期、需求方为适应性预期的假设条件,建立了包含差异化预期和政策调控的住房市场均衡模型,然后以中国35个大中城市为样本,利用线性模型和门槛模型实证检验了预期和政策调控对房价波动的影响。研究发现,预期对房价波动具有显著影响,上一期房价增量的提升对本期房价增量具有显著的抑制效应。研究还表明,政府的房地产调控政策对房价波动存在明显的门槛效应:当房价增幅放缓时,土地供应的放宽会拉升房价,反之则土地政策效果减弱。随着房价增幅的提升,货币政策对房价的作用增大。保障房政策对房价的影响随房价增幅与居民可支配收入增幅的动态变化而表现出三种不同的结果。

Based on the housing stock adjustment model, and the assumption that housing supply side has rational expectations and housing demand side has the adaptive ex- pectations, this paper establishes a balanced model of housing market including the differ- entiated expectations and policy adjustment. Then it takes the 35 large and medium-sized cities in China as a sample, and makes an empirical test on the effects of the expectations and policy adjustment on housing price fluctuations by using linear and threshold models. It indicates that the expectations significantly affect housing price fluctuations and the in- crease in the last period of housing prices has a significant inhibitory effect on the housing price increment during this period. In addition, the governments~ real estate regulation has the obvious threshold effect on housing price fluctuations, when housing price growth slows down, land supply relaxation results in the increase in housing prices, otherwise the effect of land policy weakens; monetary policy shows more and more effect on housing prices when the increase in housing prices is rising; there are three different results about the effect of the affordable housing policy on housing prices according to the growth speed of housing prices and the dynamic changes of residents＇ disposable income growth.