大国开放经济体货币政策的冲击、协调和传导效应研究——兼谈美国货币政策正常化效应及中国应对策略

A Research on Shock,Coordination and Conduction on Monetary Policies of Opened-large-economic Countries:Also on the Normalization Effect of US Monetary Policies with China' s Countermeasures

随着中国经济实力和国际影响力的提升,中国货币政策的国际关注度和影响力不断加大。在制定和执行货币政策时,货币当局越来越需要考虑和其他国际经济体特别是大国开放经济体政策协调和博弈。根据货币政策的经济效应模型,构建了国际货币政策冲击模型和国内货币政策传导模型,利用中美两个大国经济体的相对变量数据,计量了中国货币政策对我国经济增长、物价水平的影响效应。在此基础上,进一步分析了美国退出量宽政策和货币政策正常化对中国经济的影响以及中国经济的响应过程,并提出了应对策略和相关政策改革建议。

As China＇ s economic strength and international influence, China＇ s monetary policy is taken increasing international attention. In the implementation of monetary policy, monetary authority of china should consider more policy＇ s coordination with other international economies especially opened-large ones. In this paper, according to the economic effects model of monetary policy, we build the international impact model and domestic conduction model of monetary policies, using the relative variable data on the two big economies of China and the United States, measurement of monetary policy on economic growth and price level in china. Further, we analyze the exiting influence of the American QE policy to Chinese economy, then putting forward the coping strategies and proposals for monetary policy.