民间融资与非法集资关联度实证研究

The Empirical Research on Correlation of Folk Financing and Illegal Fund-raising

在缺乏监管主体和法律适用性不强等背景下,民间融资行为极易演变为非法集资活动,而对非法集资行为的监测和预警则非常困难,仅靠事后的被动应对很难对非法集资进行有效的防范和控制。因此亟须研究民间融资的活跃程度与非法集资的关联性,从而通过对民间融资的监测达到对非法集资犯罪进行预警的目的。在对我国民间融资和非法集资的基本情况进行梳理分析的基础上,采用经济金融相关系数法对我国各省份民间融资的规模进行测算。然后分别采用面板格兰杰因果检验、面板协整检验和PVAR模型检验民间融资规模和利率与非法集资立案数量的关联性。研究结果表明:(1)民间融资规模与非法集资之间存在长期稳定的协整关系;(2)民间融资利率是非法集资的格兰杰原因,民间融资规模对非法集资存在显著的正向冲击。

At the background of lack of regulatory subject and legal applicability weakening, folk scale financing behavior was easily evolving into the illegal fund-raising activity. However, it is very hard to supervise and predict the illegal fund-raising activity. Afterwards passive response cannot prevent and control the illegal fund-raising effectively. So we are urgent need to make the research on the relevance between activity level of private financing and illegal fund-raising, in that way we can achieve the prediction for illegal fund-raising crime by the supervision of folk scale financing. Based on combing analysis of the folk scale financing and illegal fund-raising＇ s basic situation, this paper made a calculation on the folk scale financing of each province in China by using the economic financial correlation coefficient method. And then the author tested on the relevance of the folk scale financing, folk financing rates and the illegal fund-raising crime numbers with the panel cointegration, panel Granger test and PVAR model. The result showed that： （1） there was a long-term stability cointegration between the folk scale financing and illegal fund-raising; （2） folk financing rates was the Granger cause of illegal fund-raising, and folk scale financing had a significant positive impact on illegal fund-raising.