山西省水资源生态足迹核算与预测研究

Study on the Calculation and Prediction of Water Resource Ecological Footprint in Shanxi Province

运用水资源生态模型计算2003～2012年山西省水资源生态足迹、水资源生态承载力和生态赤字。运用ARIMA（2，1，1）预测模型预测2013—2017年的生态赤字（盈余）趋势。结果表明，山西省水资源生态足迹呈台阶式上升趋势，水资源承载力呈台阶式下降趋势，水资源利用呈生态赤字状态，山西省水资源问题面临严峻考验，处于不可持续的利用状况。

It was calculated the per capita ecological footprint, per capita ecological carrying capacity and per capita deficit of water resources in Shanxi Province from Year 2003 to Year 2012 based on water resources ecological footprint model. The ARIMA （2,1,1） prediction model was used to forecast the trend of the per capita ecological deficit （ surplus） from 2013 to 2017. The results showed that the per capita ecological footprint of water was tended to increase, while the per capita water resources carrying capacity was tended to decrease by steps, the use of water resource was appeared in deficit. Therefore, water resource problem is serious in Shanxi Province in the unsustainable status.