中国城市人口老龄化趋势预测、形成机理及对策

Population Aging in Urban Area of China for Tread,Formation Mechanism and Countermeasures

运用灰色GM(1,1)对我国城市人口老龄化发展趋势进行预测分析,结果表明:老龄化率与实际情况非常吻合,并出现阶段性特征。由于老龄化的形成不是一种因素的作用,而是以出生率、死亡率为主的各因素相互影响的结果。因此,应从构建适老化社区、开拓适老化产业、发展适老化服务业以及城市住房、出行的适老化方面着手,力求有效缓解城市日益严重的老龄化问题。

Gray GM （1,1） was used to predict the process of China urban elderly population aging in this paper, and the results showed that aging rate is very consistent with the actual situation, moreover it will show stage characteristics. However, the formation of the aging is not only a factor plays a role in but also the large results of birth rate, mortality and other factors. So the aging society calls for urgent countermeasures adapt to aging by building community, developing industry and services, also positively promotinghousing and getting around in urban area.