维护南海权益的法理基础和政治策略

The Legal Basis and Political Strategy to Protect the Interests of South China Sea

维护我国南海权益的现实命题即实现专属经济区最大化。然而面对严峻的挑战:菲律宾、越南拥有分布南海两厢漫长的海岸线;实际控制实属我国固有领土的两大岛屿;我国981钻井平台作业受到干扰;国际海洋法仲裁法庭可能就"九段线"问题作出对我国不利裁决。我国应当在国际法框架下采取审时度势对策:在2020/2022年之前,适时收复中业岛、南威岛;在我国控制的若干岛屿上加紧生活设施建设;进而,连同台湾地方当局实际控制的太平岛,共同构成贯穿南海的"中轴线"岛链;依托该中轴线岛链向东、西两厢主张200海里专属经济区。政治策略:推动第三次国共合作,订立两岸和平协议进而联手收复两岛;美、日"协防台湾"战略框架随之瓦解;且台湾国民党人可能由此赢得2016年选战。

Facing the situation that Philippines and Vietnam have long coastline in the South China Sea and take actual control of the two large islands which are inherent territory of China, ＂981rig＂ withdrawal,and International Sea Arbitration Court might make an adverse award on China＇s ＂ nine segment line＂,China should take the following strategies within international law framework：before 2020/2022,China should regain Zhongye and Nanwei islands,and intensify life facilities on Yongxing and Taiping Islands,and other islands or reefs of China;so we would constitute the sea ＂axis line＂ that cross South China Sea,and could claim the exclusive economic zone within 200 nautical miles to East and West by the axis.At the political level：we could negotiate with KMT as equals to conclude a peace agreement,and then to team up to recover the two islands,and then the United States and Japan＇s ＂ help defend Taiwan＂ strategy would collapse.Taiwan KMT,who recognize ＂92consensus＂,would likely win the 2016 election,which would promote cross-strait peaceful reunification.