摘要
The Tatmadaw remains the most regardless of other changes to powerful political entity in Myanmar, motivated to preserve four core interests the state and society--maintenance of complete institutional autonomy and independence; exclusive control over security portfolios; veto powers over constitutional change; and inhibiting prosecution for actions conducted during the Junta era. These interests are embedded within and supported by a praetorian ethos pillared upon a national security narrative justifying the military＇s ongoing political involvement while the democratic process continues to mature, including past the upcoming parliamentary elections this November. New institutions and practices, however, have opened the political realm in unprecedented ways. Within this increasingly shifting political landscape, it is uncertain the unity and coherence of the regime--the military and their retired brethren in charge of the executive and parliament to maintain power, especially due to the large manipulations of the electoral and democratic processes which would be required to ensure their rule. Military intervention cannot be ruled out, but the Tatmadaw is reluctant to overtly and aggressively regain control politically unless it feels its core interests will be irrevocably and immediately compromised by a new government. With their roles and responsibilities protected, the military may feel they can control, or at least marginalize, a parliament and/or government hostile to its interests. The 2015 elections will not, therefore, mark the end of the military＇s preponderant political influence but continue to erode their control over the pathways of political power and may bring about the first truly civilian-military government in the country＇s transition away from military rule; a significant milestone as those outside the old, yet still influential, military regime gain access to begrudgingly-ceded power.
