基于ARMA模型的病虫灾受灾面积的分析与预测

The analysis and prediction of insects plague area based on the ARMA model

考虑到气象等环境因素对病虫灾受灾面积的影响,利用湖北省某一时间段病虫灾受灾面积的具体数据,检测数据的平稳性.如果数据平稳,建立相应的病虫灾受灾面积的ARMA时间序列模型,并直接进行以下操作:首先,结合MATLAB,EVIEWS等软件,对病虫灾受灾面积模型进行定阶,参数估计;其次,检验病虫灾受灾面积模型的平稳性和白噪声,检验结果不合理时重复操作.待病虫灾受灾面积的模型合理后,对病虫灾受灾面积进行预测.如果数据不平稳,利用差分或其他方法对其进行平稳化处理,建立模型并重复上述操作.本研究可为病虫灾害的预防与防治工作提供理论依据.

Using the data for the area of diseases and pests disaster in Hubei Province,the corresponding stationary property is investigated.On the basis of the above,considering the influence of meteorological and environmental factors on the area of diseases and pests disasters,the corresponding ARMA model of time series is proposed.If the model is stationary,the following operations are carried out：firstly,combined with MATLAB,EVIEWS and other softwares,the order of the model is determined and the corresponding parameters are estimated.Secondly,we test the stability of the white noise and the affected area for the pest disaster model.If the test results are not reasonable,the repeated operation will be done until the results are reasonable for prediction.This study provides a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of disease and pest disasters.