基于DSR模型的工业化、农业现代化对城镇化发展的影响机制

Effect Mechanism of Industrialization, Agricultural Modernization on Urbanization Development Based on DSR Model

从城镇化与工业化、农业现代化关系的角度梳理世界7个典型国家的现代化发展历程,基于DSR理论模型分析这些国家"三化"发展的驱动力、状态和效应,进而构建城镇化与工业化、农业现代化协调演进机制,利用世界银行公开数据库提供的171个国家1961-2011年的面板数据进行实证研究。结果表明,工业化对城镇化发展产生正向影响;农业现代化对城镇化发展产生正向影响,农业现代化程度越高,城镇化率越高;"工"、"农"、"城"相互影响存在着内在的规律性。基于研究,提出了推动工业化与城镇化良性互动、推动农业现代化与城镇化协调发展政策建议。

From perspective of relationship of urbanization, industrialization and agricultural modernization, the development process of modernization of 7 typical countries were arranged. Based on DSR model the driving force, condition and effective of development of urbanization, industrialization and agricultural modernization in these countries were analyzed, and then the mechanism of coordinated evolution of the three was constructed. Using 1961-2011 panel data of 171 countries provided by World Bank open database, an empirical research on the mechanism was conducted. Results showed that industrialization and agricultural modernization are positively related to urbanization. The higher degree the agricultural modernization, the higher the urbanization rate will be; Industrialization, agricultural modernization and urbanization are interrelated, with inherent law. To some extent, the development of industrialization and agricultural modernization might promote urbanization. According to the analysis, political suggestions of promoting positive interaction of industrialization and urbanization, promoting coordinated development of agricultural modernization and urbanization were put forward.