玛纳斯河径流对气候变化的响应研究

Study on Response of the Manasi River Runoff to Climate Change

使用数理统计和时间序列方法探讨了过去半个多世纪玛纳斯河流域气候变化及其对径流的响应。研究结果表明:1流域气温和降水整体呈上升趋势;2基于多元逐步回归法,建立径流与降水和气温的多元线性回归模型,研究表明夏半年降水、冬半年降水和夏半年气温与年径流回归效果最好,均呈正相关,相关系数高达0.986;3分析了单个气象因子变化对径流变化的影响,当流域夏半年降雨量每增加或减少100 mm,年径流量会有增加或减少0.693亿m3正响应,冬半年降雨量每增加或减少10mm,年径流量会有增加或减少0.223亿m3正响应,夏半年气温每增加或减少1℃,年径流量会有增加或减少0.48亿m3正响应。

This paper uses the mathematical statistics and time sequence method to analyze the climate change in the Manasi River basin and the response of the river to runoff in more than half a century in the past. According to the study;①The temperature and precipitation in the river basin generally increase; ②A multivariate linear regression model for describing the relationship between runoff, precipitation, and temperature is established in compliance with the stepwise multiple regression method. As shown in the study, the correlation between summer half-year precipitation, winter half-year precipitation, summer half-year temperature, and annual runoff presents best regression effect, taking on positive correlation and increasing the correlation coefficient up to 0.986;③The effect is analyzed for variation of individual meteorological factors on the runoff change. When the summer half-year precipitation increases or decreases by 100 mm in the basin, the annual runoff increases or decreases （in positive response） by 69.3 million m^3. When the winter half-year precipitation increases or decreases by 10 mm, the annual runoff increases or decreases （in positive response） by 22.3 million m^3. When the summer half-year temperature increases or decreases by 1℃, the annual runoff increases or decreases （in positive response） by 48 million m^3.