食品安全事件对我国乳制品产业的冲击影响与恢复研究——以“三聚氰胺”等事件为例

A Study on the Impact and Recovery of Food Safety Incidents in China' Dairy Industry——Focused on “Melamine”Event,etc.

文章采用Engle和Granger两步法构建ECM模型研究食品安全事件对我国乳制品产业的冲击影响及其恢复情况。构建长期关系模型反映了我国乳业2007年至2010年期间经历的不同发展阶段,并引入食品安全事件冲击变量对以"三聚氰胺"事件为代表的系列重大乳制品安全事件的冲击影响进行比较分析,在此基础上通过扩展的ECM模型构建短期动态关系,重点以"三聚氰胺"事件为代表,估算出危机后乳制品产业需两个多月的调整才能恢复至均衡。但由于产业发展趋势发生了结构性变化,危机后两年左右产业发展仍未恢复至危机前水平。

The Engle and Granger two-step method was used in this paper to construct the ECM model to study the impact and recovery of food safety incidents in China＇ dairy industry. The long-term relationship model is established in the paper to reflect the dairy industry＇s different stages of development in China during 2007-2010; in the meantime, this paper introduces sets of food safety shock variables to make a comparative analysis of the impact of the severe dairy safety incidents with ＂melamine＂ event as a repre- sentative. And then it mainly focuses on ＂melamine＂ event and establishes short-term dynamic relation by expanded ECM model to predict that the dairy market needs more than two-month adjustment before returning to equilibrium after this crisis. However, the development of dairy industry has experienced structural changes due to the serious impact of crisis, thus China＇s dairy market hasn＇t returned to pre-crisis levels two years after the crisis.