2004—2012年中国粮食增产中的投入贡献

Inputs contribution to grain production increase from 2004 to 2012 in China

利用省级面板数据估计2004—2012年我国稻谷、小麦和玉米总产量增长中种粮投入因素的影响及其对粮食产量增长率变化的贡献。结果表明:稻谷、小麦和玉米三大作物生产中,播种面积的产出弹性均远大于物质服务投入强度,劳动力成本强度的影响则均未通过显著性检验;2004-2012年,尽管我国稻谷、小麦和玉米的产量不断增加,但增长速度逐渐下降,种粮投入对我国稻谷、小麦和玉米增产率变化的贡献均在80%左右,播种面积减少是粮食增产速度下降的主要原因;稻谷产量增长率变化中播种面积的贡献比重逐步加大,小麦增产率变化中播种面积的贡献比重则显著下降,而玉米的投入贡献比重变化不明显。促进我国粮食增产,稳定和扩大播种面积是基础,保护耕地是关键,应针对不同作物制定科学合理的粮食生产投入政策与机制。

This article calculated the input contribution to the production increase and its growth rate of rice,wheat and corn using provincial panel data from 2004 to 2012 in China. Results showed that ：（1）The output elasticity of planting area of rice,wheat and corn was much larger than material service input intensity,and the labor input intensity did not pass the significance test.（2）Though the production of rice,wheat and corn increased from 2004 to 2012,the growth rate gradually decreased. The input contribution to the growth rate of rice,wheat and corn was 80% on average and the planting area was the main reason of growth rate decrease.（3）The proportion of contribution of planting area gradually increased for the growth rate change of rice production,and yet decreased for the growth rate of wheat production. The proportion of contribution of input factors of corn had no evident change. This article concluded that,to maintain and to expand the planting area was the base of grain production,while the key measure was protecting the cultivated land. Furthermore,scientific and reasonable agricultural input policy and mechanism should be made targeted to different crop varieties.