基于EKC模型的安徽省环境质量好转条件下城镇化规模测算

Urbanization size measurement under the condition of environmental quality improvement in Anhui Province based on EKC model

探索环境质量改善条件下城镇化规模,对指导管理层制定城镇化与生态环境保护深度协调融合的政策具有重要启示意义。选取人均工业废水排放等11个指标构建环境污染评价体系,采用熵值赋权法,对安徽省环境污染综合指数进行测算;运用LMDI分解模型,对城镇化进程引致的污染指数进行考察;基于EKC建模机理,借助Excel软件,通过作散点图,添加趋势线,构造了城镇化进程与其引致污染的三次曲线,采用高数求导判别拐点分析方法,揭示了环境质量好转条件下城镇化规模。结果表明:安徽省城镇化进程引致的污染指数由2001年的0.056 1跃升至2013年的0.805 8,呈持续增长态势;城镇化进程引致的污染指数与城镇化规模间契合呈倒N型曲线关系;城镇化规模达3 106.26万人为安徽省环境质量开始好转的规模临界值,现阶段,城镇化进程引致的污染指数处于倒N型中部上升通道。为促进生态安徽与新型城镇化建设发展,从优化产业结构、实施创新驱动、依法严格环境管控等方面提出建议。

To explore the urbanization size under the condition of environment quality improvement is of great enlightenment significance to guide the management for formulating the deep coordinated fusion policies between urbanization and ecological environment protection. A total of 11 indices such as per- capita industrial waste discharge are selected to construct the environmental pollution evaluation sys- tem. The entropy weighting method is used to calculate environmental pollution comprehensive index in Anhui Province. LMDI decomposition model is adopted to investigate the pollution index induced by urbanization. Based on EKC modeling mechanism with the aid of Excel software, scatterplot with trend line is applied to construct the cubic curve of urbanization process and its caused pollution. Advancedmathematics for derivation is used to judge the inflection point analysis method, so as to reveal the ur- banization size under the condition of environment quality improvement. The results show that ：The pol- lution index caused by urbanization in Anhui Province jumped from 0. 056 1 in 2001 to 0. 805 8 in 2013, showing acontinuous growth trend ;The relation between the pollution index caused by urbaniza- tion and urbanization size is consistent with the inverted-N curve ;The size critical value of environmen- tal quality started to improve in Anhui Province is 31. 062 6 million. In the present stage, the pollution index caused by urbanization enters the iuverted-N central rising channel. Based on research results,To promote the development of eco-Anhui and new urbanization, policy suggestions are put forward advan- tageous to earlier inflection point from the optimization of industrial structure, implementation of inno- vation drive, strict environmental control in line with laws and other aspects.