大科学工程项目效率动态建模方法

Dynamic Modeling Method for Efficiency of Large Scientific Engineering Project

针对大科学工程规模大、周期长以及任务独特等特点,考虑项目层的影响因素,并增加产品层的影响因素,构建了包括可用性、项目管理绩效以及科研能力等7项指标的两层次系统动力学仿真模型用于评价其项目效率。将考虑资源约束及其产出的改进DEA算法与该仿真模型相结合,提出了大科学工程项目效率动态评价方法。通过具体案例,验证了该动态建模思路和方法的正确性,揭示了SPI、CPI等项目绩效指标对项目效率的影响及其趋势,指出项目层的设备到货率和产品层的可靠性是影响大科学工程项目效率的关键因素。

According to the characteristics of large scientific engineering,such as large scale,long lifecycle and mission uniqueness,through analyzing the existing influence factors at project level and adding the influential factors at product level,this paper establishes a two-hierarchy system dynamic simulation model which includes seven indicators,such as availability,project management performance,research capacity and so on.Then combining this simulation model with the modified DEA considering resource constraints and outputs,it gives a dynamic evaluation method for project efficiency of large scientific engineering.Finally,it verifies the dynamic modeling method and the thinking,and reveals the impacts of project performance indexes such as CPI and SPI on project efficiency and their trend,and points out that equipment arrival rate at project level and reliability at product level are the critical factors influencing project efficiency of large scientific engineering.