灰色系统模型在我国污水排放量模拟及预测中的应用

Application of grey system model in simulation and prediction of China sewage discharge

针对我国污水排量进行研究,运用2006-2011年的污水排放资料建立灰色系统GM（1,1）模型,预测其发展变化过程。通过将2012年的预测结果与实际数据进行对比,检验了模型的可信度。数据显示,我国污水排放量从2006年的536.8亿吨上升到了2011年的652.1亿吨。根据计算,到2018年其总量将比2006年增涨50%以上。今后,污水排放量的快速增长,将会迫切要求进行合理有效的水资源规划和管理,以实现水资源的可持续发展利用。

Based on the study of sewage discharge quantity in China,using official data of sewage discharge from 2006 to 2011,the grey system GM（1,1）model is established that can predict its development process.Compared the prediction results in 2012 with the actual data,the credibility of this model is improved.The data show that waste water quantity rose up considerably,from 536.8tons in 2006 to 652.1tons in 2011.By2018,this number will rise up more than 50% than it in 2006.In the near future,the rapid growth of the amount of sewage discharge will be an urgent problem that needs to be controlled and managed in order to meet the requirements of sustainable development for the water resources.