我国能源碳排放与经济增长脱钩关系研究

随着低碳经济的兴起,能源碳排放与经济增长的关系日益成为热点问题。本文采用最新的投入产出数据,对1995-2011年我国能源碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系进行测度和分析。结果显示:除1997-1998、2002-2004年的强脱钩和扩张性负脱钩状态以外,我国能源碳排放与经济增长之间均呈现弱脱钩关系。从行业看,农业、食品/饮料/烟草业和其他制造业脱钩状态最为显著;石油/炼焦加工,金属冶炼/压延行业的脱钩状态最不明显。在此基础上,采用拓展的Tapio脱钩模型得出:人均收入和能源强度是影响我国能源碳排放与经济增长脱钩关系的主要因素,而能源结构与人口规模的影响则较小。因此,我国应通过提升高碳产业的节能减排技术,促使能源强度下降;进一步优化产业结构,扩大低碳产业在国民经济中的比重;加速能源结构调整,逐步摆脱对传统能源的过度依赖,以实现能源碳排放与经济增长的强脱钩,推进我国经济可持续发展。

The relationship between carbon emission and economic growth has become an important issue with increasing concern on low carbon economy. This paper uses the latest data of the WIOD, and measures the decoupling in China from 1995 to 2011. Results show that there presents a weak decoupling except for a strong decoupling for 1997-1998 and expansively negative decoupling for 2002-2004. Specifically, agriculture, food and other manufacturing industries demonstrate a signifi- cant decoupling, while mechanical and optical equipment, coke/refined petroleum and chemicals demonstrate the least evi- dent weak-decoupling. Decomposition of decoupling augmented Tapio model indicates that per capita income and energy intensity have significant impacts while energy structure and population play much less magnificent roles. As a result, it is necessary to improve energy-saving technology especially in high-emission industries to decrease energy intensity, and optimize energy structure to increase the share of low-carbon industries in national economy. Moreover, it is essential to speed up the energy structure adjustment to get rid of the over-dependence on traditional energy to realize strong decoupiing and thus promote a sustainable growth of national economy.