电力工业改革对我国经济影响的定量研究——基于投入产出模型分析

The Study on Economic Impact of the Power Industry Reform——Base on the input—output model

针对电力行业建立了供给驱动模型、需求驱动模型和投入产出价格模型,定量分析了未来电力改革的主要方向——电力投资变化、电力价格水平波动以及电力供给变动对我国经济的影响。结果表明:电力生产需提前适度高于社会各部门平均水平,以满足经济快速发展的需要;在所有的基础设施行业中,电力投资对其它产业部门的辐射作用和影响力最大;电价水平的波动对居民消费价格指数影响较小,对高耗电产业影响较大。

The article establishes the supply-driven model, the demand-driven model and input output price model for the power industry to analy- sis quantitatively the impact of the power industry reform on the economy, including the changes of electricity investment, the fluctuations of elec- tricity prices and the power supply. The results show that electricity production must be in advance higher moderately than the average level of all sectors to meet the needs of rapid economic development. The radiation and influence of power sector is the maximum among all infrastructure sec- tors. The fluctuations of the electric price have less impact on the consumer price index and have greater impact on the power-hungry industry.