“哑铃现象”与“非线性”人口增长解读

Analysis of the “dumbbell phenomenon”and “non linear”growth rate of population

微观上,家庭生育孩子的数量与家庭收入水平有关,这种关系使得现实生育结构宏观上呈现出"哑铃现象",计划生育政策在其中起了决定性作用。宏观上,人口自然增长率与经济发展的关系和经济发展阶段相关,人口自然增长率在低经济发展水平国家处于高位徘徊,在中等经济发展水平国家与经济增长成反比,在高经济发展水平国家则体现为达到一定低位时出现分化。微观人口经济学理论对上述现象给出了合理的解释。"哑铃现象"具有负面影响,计划生育政策限制人口增长的作用因经济发展阶段的变化而递减。适度调整计划生育政策,努力缩小贫富差距,大力培植中等收入群体是我国人口发展步入良性循环的必由之路。

On a micro- level,the number of children born in a family is related to the income of the family. This relation results in the ＂dumbbell phenomenon＂in the fertility and birth structure on a macro- level in reality,in which the policy of family planning plays a decisive role. On a macro- level,the natural growth rate of population is related to economic development and the phase of economic development： in economically less developed countries,the natural growth rate of population is hovering high; in economically medium- developed countries,it is inversely proportional to the economic growth rate; while in economically well developed countries,it may demonstrate irregularities once it reaches a certain low position. ＂Dumbbell phenomenon＂may exert a negative influence,and the role played by the policy of family planning may become increasingly tiny as the phase of the economic growth shifts. Reasonable adjustment to the policy of family planning,shortening the gap between the haves and the have- nots and fostering the group with medium income through painstaking efforts are a necessary step we must take to put the growth of population in our country to a sound circle.