基于不同方法的滑坡滑带力学参数敏感性分析

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF MECHANICAL PARAMETERS OF LANDSLIDE SLIPZONE USING THREE METHODS

滑坡参数敏感性分析是滑坡机理分析和定量评价的基础。滑坡参数敏感性分析有多种方法,然而采用不同方法所得的分析结果是否一致,目前尚不清楚。本文以具有流变特征的甘肃省舟曲县泄流坡滑坡为例,采用敏感性系数法、敏感度函数法和正交试验法等3种最常用方法分析滑坡位移速率对滑带力学参数的敏感性。对比分析发现,3种方法识别出的最敏感参数均为Maxwell黏度,而滑坡对其他参数的敏感性排序却不尽相同。由于敏感性系数法和敏感度函数法适用于参数较少的情况,所以对于受多个流变力学参数控制的缓慢活动性滑坡,基于正交试验法所得的敏感性分析结果相对更为合理。

Sensitivity analysis of landslide parameters is the foundation of the landslide mechanism analysis and quantitative evaluation. The sensitivity coefficient method,the sensitivity function method and the orthogonal test method are the three most common methods in sensitivity analysis of landslide parameters. However,it is not clear whether the three methods would have the same results with the same input data. This paper takes the mechanical parameters of the slipzone of Xieliupo landslide as an example. Sensitivity analysis is made using the three different methods. Although the results are not the same,the Maxwell viscosity is identified as the most sensitive parameter by all the methods. The sensitivity coefficient method and the sensitivity function method are often limited to the cases with fewer parameters. The result by the orthogonal method is considered more reasonable for the slow moving landslide with multiple mechanical parameters.