2016年世界经济走势分析及预测

The Analysis and Prediction of World Economic Trends in 2016

2015年以来,世界经济总体增速呈放缓态势,预计2016年世界经济继续缓慢增长。其中,美国经济依然保持增长,但速度可能放缓;欧元区和英国将继续保持复苏态势;日本经济仍低速增长;新兴经济体整体趋好,仍分化严重。世界经济将主要面临三方面风险:一是美联储启动加息,欧元区和日本继续实施量化宽松政策,使世界金融市场继续震荡;二是主要经济体的财政刺激空间有限;三是中国进口需求可能继续放缓。

Since 2015, total growth rate of world economy has been in slowdown situation. It is expected world economy will continue to grow slowly in 2016. Among them, the U.S. economy will still keep on growing, but its growth rate may slow down; Euro zone and U.K. will keep recovery situation; Japan economy will still grow at a low speed; emerging economies will get better as a whole, but their differentiation will be aggravated. In 203.6, world economy will be faced with risks in the following three aspects ： firstly, U.S. Federal Reserve starting interest rate hike and Japan＇s continuously implementing QE policy will make world financial market keep on fluctuating; secondly, the fiscal stimulus space of major economies will be limited; thirdly, China＇s import demand may continue to slow down.