与内地经贸合作对香港物价的影响——基于CEPA效果的实证分析

Impact of Economic and Trade Cooperation with Mainland on Hong Kong's Price Index:An Empirical Analysis Based on CEPA Performance

为了揭示香港与内地之间的经贸往来对香港物价水平的影响,文章运用非参数面板数据估计法,测算出了2003年7月到2014年10月间若《内地与香港关于建立更紧密经贸关系的安排》(CEPA)未出台的情况下香港月度CPI同比增长率的潜在走势,发现其均值仅为-0.43%。与实际走势对比发现,CEPA总体上提高了香港的通货膨胀率,使月度CPI同比增长率平均提高了1.65%,帮助香港摆脱了通货紧缩困境;而在2008年全球金融危机期间,CEPA反而在一定程度上抑制了香港的实际通胀水平,平均效果为-1.4%,对稳定香港宏观经济环境做出了很大贡献。进一步的实证分析表明,CEPA对香港物价水平的影响与香港从内地的进口总量呈正相关,与内地的通胀水平呈负相关。

This paper uses the non- parameter method with panel data to measure the potential trend of Hong Kong＇ s year- on- year growth rate of CPI from July 2003 to October 2014 when there had not been the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement （CEPA） between Hong Kong and the mainland. Compar- ing it with the actual growth rate of CPI, the paper finds that the CEPA has in- creased the inflation rate averagely by 1.65% on the whole, helping Hong Kong to get rid of the serious deflation. However, during the global financial crisis in 2008, the CEPA restrained the inflation rate, instead of pushing, with an average effect of - 1.4%. All these have contributed a lot to the steadiness of Hong Kong＇ s economic environment. The further study shows that the effect of CEPA is posi- tively related to the total amount of Hong Kong＇ s import from the mainland, while negatively related to the inflation rate of the mainland.