基于时序生产模拟的新能源年度消纳能力计算方法及其应用

Research and Application of Renewable Energy Accommodation Capability Evaluation Based on Time Series Production Simulation

随着中国风电、光伏等新能源高速发展,不断提高电力系统新能源消纳水平、降低弃风、弃光电量成为电网调度机构面临的重大挑战。新能源年度消纳能力计算是提前预估电网新能源消纳空间、优化年度运行方式安排、做好新能源消纳工作的关键环节。分析了新能源消纳能力计算的研究现状,提出了基于时序生产模拟的新能源年度消纳能力计算方法,建立了含机组启停机约束的混合整数规划模型,开发了新能源生产模拟仿真软件,并基于2015年一季度实际数据验证分析,证明了所提方法和模型的准确性和适应性,在开展新能源富集的"三北"地区年度消纳能力计算实际案例研究的基础上提出了相关建议。

With the rapid development of wind power and PV power in China, it is big challenge for grid operation to reduce wind or PV power curtailment and to increase capacity for renewable energy. Annual renewable energy accommodation capability is the key point to optimize power system operation arrangement and to obligate renewable energy electricity space. After review of current research situation, a new method is proposed for annual renewable energy accommodation capability assessment based on time series production simulation. A mixed integer programming model for the constraint of starting and stopping of the generation unit is also established. Renewable Energy Production Simulation （REPS） Platform is developed based on proposed algorithm. The annual renewable energy accommodation capability of 2015 is evaluated by REPS and the comparison with field data in first quarter shows the accuracy and adaptability of proposed method.