以电代煤发展模型和应用研究

Research on the Development Model of Replacing Coal with Electricity and its Application

长期以来中国大量消费直燃煤是造成环境污染的重要因素。以年均总费用最小为目标,以直燃煤削减量、主要煤炭替代技术的产能为约束,结合中国煤炭消费总量控制目标和节能减排低碳发展行动方案,构建了宏观层面燃煤替代优化模型。研究表明,电代煤市场前景广阔,预期节能减排成效显著,但是现阶段需要政策扶持,形成多赢局面。算例验证了所提模型方法的有效性,可为有关部门开展煤炭替代远景规划提供参考。

Large quantity of coal has been consumed directly in China for a long time, which is an important factor for environmental pollution. With the goal of minimal total annual cost, an optimization model for replacing coal with electricity is proposed, with the reduction of coal consumption and the production capacity of the main coal replacement technology as constraints, and with consideration of China＇ s total coal consumption control target and the action plan of energy conservation and emission reduction. Research result shows that the market prospect of replacing coal with electricity is promising, but it needs the support of national policy for a win-win situation of every participator. A case study has proved the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed method. The method can be referred for long term planning of national coal reolacement.