台湾财政困境分析

Analysis on Taiwan's Financial Plight

2008年以来,台湾当局一直把"拼经济"作为施政重点,但民众对经济发展的"无感"以及对当局执政能力的诟病似挥之不去的阴霾,对执政当局形成巨大压力,并导致诸多的社会乱象。究其缘由,财政状况是一个举足轻重的影响因素,因为财政能力反映政府对经济可持续发展和社会稳定的保障能力。因此,本文基于财政风险理论,通过相应的分析框架,对台湾目前赤字和债务情况、财政体制、财政收支能力及公共资产状况等进行了分析。研究发现,在财政赤字和债务风险较高情况下,台湾财政面临困境,主要反映为在债务已达法定上限,以及地方政府普遍债台高筑的同时,近十年来财政收入与GDP占比下降很快,相应的财政支出能力也急剧下降,严重制约了台湾当局利用财政工具促进经济增长和提升民生福利的能力,影响到了社会稳定以及民众对台湾经济未来发展的预期。如何改善财政收支能力是关键,但也是台湾当局(无论哪个党执政)"拼经济"面临的烫手山芋。

Since 2008, the public policies of Taiwan focus on the ＂economic revitalization＂. However, common people had ＂no sense＂ about it, and even more, many people criticized the authorities＇ ability to deve lop economy, which lead to much social chaos. One of the reasons is the financial situation of the government. Financial capacity reflects the ability to promote sustainable economic development and safeguard social stabil- ity of the government. Based on the theory of financial risk and fiscal risk analysis framework, the paper analy- zes several aspects of Taiwan financial,including current debt situation, fiscal system, fiscal balances capacity and public assets. The study concludes that at higher risk of deficit and debt situation, Taiwan is facing finan- cial difficulties, mainly reflected in the debt reached the statutory limit, and local government general debt. Meanwhile, over the past decade the proportion of fiscal revenue to GDP fell rapidly, the expenditure capacity sharply dropped by correspondingly. All of this severely restricts the ability of the Taiwan authorities to use fiscal instruments to promote economic growth and enhance the livelihood and welfare, affecting social stability as well as the expected future development of the people. How to improve the financial balance is the key is- sue of the future government in power, and the thorny issue of the Taiwan authorities will also have to face in a long-term.