江苏灌河入海污染通量与经济增长关系分析研究

Relationship Between Economic Growth and Sea Pollution Fluxes from Ganhe River

根据江苏省灌河沿岸市县2004年-2012年的经济增长与环境质量的相关数据,建立环境指标排放量与GDP关系的计量模型。结果分析表明:入海污染的排放与GDP之间存在库兹涅茨关系,入海污染物中COD、营养盐(主要为氨氮、磷酸盐氮、亚硝酸盐氮、磷)、重金属、石油类、砷的含量随着GDP的增加呈现出上升趋势,与人均GDP的回归分析显示出二者之间存在密切关系。灌河流域环境问题严峻,亟待解决。应进一步加强环境执法和环境治理力度,以确保环境问题得到解决。

According to the statistical data on economic growth and environmental quality of Guanhe River , Jiangsu Province from 2004 to 2012, the econometric model is establish between environmental indicators emissions and GDP.The results showed that Kuznets relationship exists between economic growth and sea pollution fluxes, pollutants into the sea, COD, nutrients (main-ly ammonia, phosphate nitrogen, nitrite nitrogen, nitrite, phosphorus), heavy metals, petroleum, are showing a rising trend with the increase of GDP, and with per capita GDP regression analysis shows that there is a close relationship between the two.Conclu-sions indicate that a serious environmental problem must be solved in Guanhe River .Recommendations were made on Jiangsu Province environmental sector to further improve the environmental policy, tightening law enforcement, increasing penalties, in-creaseing investment.