基于VAR模型的南京市经济增长与环境污染关系的实证研究

Empirical Study on Relationship between Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution in Nanjing Based on VAR Model

基于南京市1985年-2013年经济增长与环境污染的相关数据,建立经济增长与环境污染的VAR模型。在VAR模型估计的基础上,利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解对南京市经济增长与环境污染之间的双向作用机制进行分析。研究发现:南京市经济增长与环境污染之间存在双向作用机制,且环境对经济增长的反作用与经济增长对环境的影响相比要大;二氧化硫和工业固体废弃物为南京市经济增长过程中环境污染的主要表现形式,而烟尘为制约南京市经济增长的主要污染物。针对分析结果,提出优化产业结构配置,重科研引技术、提升自主创新,加大环保投入、完善环保法规等政策建议。

Based on the data of economic growth and environmental pollution from 1985 to 2013 in Nanjing,this paper establishes the VAR model of economic growth and environmental pollution. On the basis of the estimation of the VAR model,impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to analyze the two- way effect mechanism between economic growth and environmental pollution in Nanjing. The study found: there exists two- way effect mechanism between economic growth and environmental pollution in Nanjing,and the adverse effect of environment on economic growth is greater than the impact of economic growth on environment; The main forms of environmental pollution caused by economic growth in Nanjing are sulfur dioxide and industrial waste solid,and the major pollutants which restrict the economic growth in Nanjing is soot. According to the analysis of the results,some suggestions as optimization of industrial structure configuration,more emphasis on research and introduction of technology,enhancement of independent innovation capability,increase in investment of environmental protection and improvement of environmental protection regulations are put forward.