基于价格波动中介效应的气候灾害对生计脆弱性的影响机理研究

Study on the Impact Mechanism of Climate Disasters on Livelihood Vulnerability Based on Mediation Effect of Price Fluctuations

利用陕西省13个苹果主产县的调查数据,运用Bootstrap中介效应检验方法,考察了实际气候灾害、感知气候灾害对农户生计脆弱性的直接影响,以及实际和感知气候灾害通过影响苹果价格波动对生计脆弱性的间接影响,以期检验在价格波动发挥中介效应的条件下,气候灾害对生计脆弱性的影响机理。结果表明:实际和感知气候灾害均对生计脆弱性有正向直接影响,且实际气候灾害的影响大于感知气候灾害(3.80>0.83);价格波动在实际和感知气候灾害影响生计脆弱性过程中发挥正向中介效应,中介效应占总效应的比值分别为37.93%和38.33%。通过对比发现,价格波动在实际气候灾害影响过程的中介效应大于感知气候灾害影响过程的中介效应(2.32>0.52)。

Based on the data collected from 13 apple-producing counties in Shaanxi Province of China,through a Bootstrap mediation effect test,the study examines the direct impact of actual climate and perceived climate disasters on farmers′livelihood vulnerability,and the indirect impact of apple price fluctuations on livelihood vulnerability,in oeder to examine the impact mechanism of climate disasters on livelihood vulnerability under the condition that price fluctuations play a mediating effect.The results showe that both actual and perceived climate disasters hada positive direct impact on livelihood vulnerability,and the impact of actual climate disasters on livelihood vulnerability was greater than perceived climate disasters(3.80>0.83);price fluctuations playesa positive mediating role for the factors of actual and perceived climate disasters to affect livelihood vulnerability,moreover,the ratio of mediating effect to total effect was 37.93%and 38.33%,respectively.By comparison,it was found that the mediating effect of price fluctuations in the process of actual climate disasters was greater than the process of perceived climate disasters(2.32>0.52).