农业产业化与农产品物流关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Relationship Between Industrialization of Agriculture and Agricultural Products Logistics

农业产业化与农产品物流业之间存在相互影响和制约的关系。目前的研究缺乏定量的对二者关系影响和程度的研究。该研究采用主成分分析法,对农业产业化和农产品物流的发展水平进行测度,利用对二者测度水平构成的时间序列,通过协整分析和向量误差修正模型来研究二者长期均衡和短期波动,以期为农业产业化与农产品物流融合发展提供建议。结果表明:第一,农业产业化水平和农产品物流水平不断提高,但是总体水平仍然较低;第二,二者之间存在长期均衡关系,短期波动对二者的关系有调整作用,且长期关系的影响大于短期关系,主要原因在于二者水平都偏低,一方水平的变化会引起另一方的显著变化,格兰杰检验验证了二者互为因果关系。未来需要通过组织创新、政府政策支持等将二者融合发展。

Industrialization of agriculture and agricultural product logistics have the mutual constraint relationship.The current study lacks a quantitative study of the impact and extent of the relationship.The principal component analysis method was used to measure the development level of industrialization of agricultural and agricultural product logistics.Using the time series of the two measurement levels,the long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuations were studied through cointegration test and VECM,in order to provide suggestions for the integration of industrialization of agriculture and agricultural product logistics.The results showed that,the first,the level of industrialization of agricultural and the level of agricultural product logistics continued to increase,but the overall level was still low.The second,there was a long-term equilibrium relationship,and shortterm fluctuations had an adjustment effect on the relationship.The long-term relationship had a greater impact than the short-term one.The main reason was that both levels were low,and changes in one party′s level would cause significant changes in the other.The GRANGER test verifies that the two were causally related to each other.In the future,the two need to be integrated and developed through organizational innovation and government policy support.