基于增强回归树的农户生态耕种采纳度分析

Analysis on Adoption Degree of Farmers′ Ecological Farming Based on Boosted Regression Tree

生态耕种是实现耕地资源可持续利用和落实数量、质量与生态'三位一体'耕地保护战略的重要手段,系统分析掌握农户生态耕种采纳度的影响因素,对于农户生态耕种激励政策的制定具有积极意义。该研究以江西省1 488份农户问卷调查为基础,利用增强回归树(BRT)模型分析了农户生态耕种采纳度的主要影响因素。结果表明:1)总体来看,半数以上样本农户对生态耕种采纳持有积极态度,但仍有进一步加强的空间。2)农户生态耕种采纳度主要受到个人特征和家庭特征的影响,其次是技术采用环境特征,社会网络特征最弱。3)农业收入比重、实际耕地面积、务农年限、年龄、文化程度、农田设施完备性、劳动力数量、宣传和传播力度对农户生态耕种采纳度具有正向影响,而灌溉水源充足性具有负向作用。根据研究结果,提出相应的政策建议。

Ecological farming is an important mean to realize the sustainable utilization of cultivated land resources and implement the‘three-in-one’cultivated land protection strategy of quantity,quality and ecology.Systematic analysis of the influencing factors of farmers′ecological farming adoption has positive significance for the formulation of farmers′ecological farming incentive policies.Based on the questionnaire survey of 1 488 farmers in Jiangxi Province,the main influencing factors of farmers′ecological farming adoption were analyzed by using the Boosted Regression Tree(BRT)model.The results showed that,1)Overall,more than half of the sample farmers had a positive attitude toward the adoption of ecological farming,but there was still room for further strengthening.2)The adoption degree of farmer ecological farming was mainly affected by family characteristics and personal characteristics,followed by technology adoption environment and social network characteristics were the weakest.3)The proportion of agricultural income,the actual cultivated land area,the length of farming,the age,the cultural level,the completeness of farmland facilities,the number of labor,the propaganda and dissemination had a positive impact on the adoption of agricultural farming,and the adequacy of irrigation water sources had a negative effect.Based on the results of the research,the study put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.