收入水平、社会流动与再分配偏好——对“POUM”假说的再检验

Income Level,Social Mobility and Preference for Redistribution

利用CGSS2010数据,本文研究收入水平、流动性对居民再分配偏好的影响。研究发现,不仅当期的收入水平对居民的再分配偏好产生显著影响,而且过去的流动性经历和对未来的流动性预期均对中国居民的再分配偏好产生显著影响。进一步的边际效应估计结果表明,社会流动性对居民再分配偏好具有较为重要的影响,其边际效应高于收入水平。进一步地,通过分析收入等级与流动性变量的交互项对居民再分配偏好的影响,直接验证"POUM"假说在中国的存在性问题。研究结论显示,如果高收入居民具有向下流动性预期,那么他将更加偏好再分配;而具有向上流动性预期的低收入等级居民具有更为微弱的再分配偏好。

This paper studies the effect of income level and social mobility on Chinese residents ＇ preference for redistribution by using the CGSS2010 data. It is found that both the income level and social mobility have significant effect on the preference for redistribution. The further marginal effect estimate indicates that social mobility has much bigger influence on preference for redistribution than the level of income. Besides, the paper verifies the existence of＂POUM＂ hypothesis in China directly by introducing the interaction term of the income variable and liquidity variable. The results show that the effect of income on preference for redistribution is affected by social mobility. In other words, the high income residents with downward liquidity show stronger preference for redistribution. Accordingly, the low income residents with upward liquidity show weaker preference for redistribution.