基于组合预测模型的风电场输出功率短期预测

Based on the Combination Forecast Model of Wind Farm Output Power Short- term Forecast

为了进一步提高风电场输出功率的预测精度,文中提出基于最小方差法的风电场输出功率短期组合预测模型。针对国内某99 MW风电机组一年历史功率数据,分别利用灰色预测模型GM(1,2)和时间序列预测模型实现风电场输出功率的短期预测,仿真结果表明,组合预测模型克服了各单项预测模型的不足,有效地提高了风电功率预测精度。

In order to further improve the prediction accuracy of wind power output,in this paper,based on the minimum variance method of wind farm output power short- term combination forecast model. In a domestic 99 MW wind turbines power a year history data,respectively,using grey prediction model GM（ 1,2） and time series prediction model for wind farm output power short- term prediction,simulation results show that the combination forecast model to overcome the deficiencies of each single prediction model,the wind power prediction accuracy is improved effectively.