权力转移、国家意志与国际秩序变迁——对七月危机的考察

Power Transition,State Will and the Transformation of International Order:A Case Study of the July Crisis

在国际关系史上,大国之间的权力转移是自然现象。在权力转移漫长的进程中,无论是主导国维护现有国际秩序的国家意志,还是崛起国建构国际新秩序的国家意志都存在强弱变化,并对国际秩序的变迁产生影响。在权力转移的持平阶段,主导国、崛起国面临的结构压力大致相同,一旦主导国具有维护现有国际秩序的强烈国家意志,崛起国具有强烈的构建国际新秩序的国家意志,那么两国国家意志制衡决定了国际秩序变迁的战争机制。七月危机前,俄、法与德、奥之间的权力对比大致持平。在奥匈帝国与塞尔维亚危机中,俄国试图削弱奥匈帝国、主导巴尔干地区,其国家意志不断增强。然而,维护奥匈帝国的完整性,就是维护欧洲大陆的均势秩序,就是维护德国的安全战略地位,因此德国具有维护奥匈帝国完整的强烈国家意志。在俄、德国家意志制衡下,围绕国际秩序主导权的竞争最终通过战争机制进行。

Power transition is the natural phenomena in the history of international relations.Either the will of the dominant state maintaining existing international order or the will of rising state reconstructing international order changes during the lengthy process of power transition,and has impact on the transformation of international order.As the condition of structure pressure is approximately the same,the balance of state wills will determine the outcome of the struggle on international order.During the Crisis of Austro-Hungary and Serbia,the Russian attempted to weaken Austro-Hungary and dominate the Balkan region,and its state will was enhanced step by step.However,for Germany,to safeguard the integrity of Austro-Hungary meant to maintain the order of the balance of power in European continent and German strategic position of security in Europe.Thus,Germany showed the strongest state will to do so.As a consequence,the balance of state wills between Russian and Germany in the 1914 Crisis of July resulted in war.