欧亚区域经济一体化背景下中国出口贸易效应及潜力研究

The Proposed Eurasian Regional Economic Integration's Influences on and Potentials for China Export

通过分析1999～2013年中国与欧亚区域39个国家的面板数据，一般引力模型结论表明，中国对欧亚区域国家出口贸易与欧亚国家经济总量（GDP）和人均GDP成正比，与距离成反比；通过扩展引力模型，得出边界、世界贸易组织、独联体框架对中国出口贸易分别产生3．69％、0．8％和1．39％的正向效应。而反映代表性需求的人均GDP差额、国土面积以及欧亚经济联盟对中国出口贸易产生显著的负向效应。其中，以欧亚经济联盟为代表的欧亚区域一体化进程将对中国出口贸易产生0．42％的贸易转移效应；对中国出口贸易潜力进行测算发现欧亚国家多为贸易潜力巨大型国家。

This paper analyzed the panel data of China and 39 countries in Eurasia region from 1999 to 2013 and use General trade gravity model,to verify that China's export trade with Europe and Asia countries is in proportional to the GDP and GDP per capita( p GDP) of these countries,while inversely proportional to the distance( D) between these country and China. The extended trade gravity model showed that border( BJ),WTO and the CIS framework( CIS) produced a positive effect on China' s export trade,caused an average increase of china's export of 3. 69%,0. 8%,and 1. 39% respectively. However,the GDP per capita differences( dp GDP) reflected in the representation of demand,as well as natural resources( land) and the Eurasian Economic Union( EEU) did have a significant negative impact on China's export trade. Among them,the EEU which reflects the process of regional integration would produce 0. 42% trade diversion effect. We estimated China' s export trade potential,and found great potential in China's export trade to countries in Eurasia region.