气候舒适度评价的经验模型:回顾与展望

Empirical Indices Evaluating Climate Comfortableness: Review and Prospect

气候舒适度表征了人体在外界气象环境综合作用下感觉舒适或不舒适的程度,其对建筑设计、人体健康、旅游活动等均有着重要影响,尤其是对度假旅游地的发展意义深远。气候舒适度研究在其100多年的发展历史中出现过上百个评价模型,总体上可划分为经验模型和机理模型这两个大类。虽然以热平衡方程为基础的机理模型自20世纪60年代产生以来,在气候舒适度评价的"理论研究"中日趋主流,但产生于20世纪20年代的经验模型仍在"实践应用"中占据着半壁江山。然而,由于缺乏对经验模型系统而细致的梳理,在大量"引入性"实践应用中,对模型适用条件的判别分析不足且对评估分级标准也缺乏针对性调整,制约了气候舒适度评价的科学性和实用性。文章力图从发展历程、应用领域、现实局限和未来展望等视角,对气候舒适度评价的经验模型进行较为全面的梳理。研究为经验模型勾勒出一个相对清晰的整体图景,详细阐明了众多经典模型的起源背景、计算公式和适用条件,并明确了这些模型之间的逻辑联系和演进脉络;同时,研究在总结其应用领域和分析其现实局限的基础上,结合气候舒适度评价"经验-机理"的演化态势,进一步提出了融入热交换机理、发展专门化模型、制定针对性标准等3个未来的发展方向。

Climate comfortableness is a bioclimatic indicator evaluating people s level of physical comfortableness/dis- comfortableness within different meteorological environments. Studies on climate comfortableness degree analysis are of substantial significance to architectural design, public health,travel behavior et al., especially to the development of vacation destinations. Over the past century,more than 100 indexes have been proposed and developed to assess climate comfortableness of human beings, and they can be further classified into two types of models, namely,＂empirical index/model＂or＂rational index/model＂. The former one refers to those indexes based on subjective feelings or physiological reaction considerations. Since the 1960s, empirical indexes have evolved to be a mature system and been widely used in practice. The rigorous application of the indexes requires the appropriate selection of evaluation models for calculation as well as the reasonable classification and interpretation of calculated results. However, though empirical models generated a large variety of important indexes in practice, systematic and comprehensive illustration of empirical models are still insufficient in most existing studies in China. Both applicability of model and specifically adjustment of grading standards are under- researched, which weakens rigour and practicability of climate comfortableness evaluation. Therefore, this paper presents a comprehensive review of empirical indexes for climate comfort evaluation, including its history of index development, areas of application,and more importantly, limitations and prospects. The main findings of this study include： 1） the focus of developing empirical indexes moved from multi-factors modelling to multi-models combination, which leads to the expansion of application conditions for empirical indexes. Now, empirical indexes are widely used in regional climate evaluation, environmental meteorology forecasting and urban planning and design. 2） By adding meteorological variables or extending evaluation criterion, the evolution of application conditions for empirical indexes is from＂cold or warm ＂to＂cold and warm ＂. However,some inherent limitations for a single empirical index（such as WEI） cannot be overcame by incorporating more meteorological variables, especially when they are applied far away from the initial environment. Therefore, the combination of＂warm- environment index（such as THI）＂and＂coldenvironment index（such as WEI）＂has become a typical method for the evaluation of climate comfortableness since the 1960 s, and at the same time, the model takes the most important four conventional meteorological parameters（air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and solar radiation） into account. 3） In the future, there are three notable directions for the development of empirical indexes. First, the theoretical basis of empirical indexes should be strengthened by integrating heat transfer mechanisms of human body, and therefore, empirical indexes can be able to rise from＂practical＂up to＂theoretical＂. Second, specific evaluation models should be developed according to various human activities to enrich the application fields for empirical indexes. Third, through empirical studies based on the classic empirical indexes, special evaluation criterions should be established contingent on different regions or human groups, strengthening the application value of empirical indexes.