基于或有权益模型的我国地方政府性债务风险度量

Measuring Local Government Debt Risk with Contingent Claims Analysis

在收集与整编多方数据的基础上,利用或有权益理论,通过构建简化的地方政府或有权益资产负债表,将政府资产和负债联系起来,测度了2013年6月底我国30个省份地方政府性债务风险。研究结果表明,考虑到各省份地方政府负有担保责任的债务,我国地方政府性债务风险较为严重。当地方政府负有担保责任的债务违约比例超过20%时,山西等部分省份开始出现资不抵债的现象,而且随着违约比例的上升,这种现象将尤为明显。当政府负有担保责任的债务全部违约时,天津和内蒙古等15个省份地方政府将爆发债务危机。为此,需要进一步加强地方政府性债务管理,将地方政府负有担保责任的或有债务纳入政府财政范围,严格规范政府担保行为,建立规范的地方政府举债融资机制。

Using the Contingent Claims Approach（CCA）,we measure the debt risk of thirty Chinese local provincial governments in 2013,and analyzes and assesses changes of key risk indicators during the period.Our results show that the Chinese local provincial governments＇ debt risk is in danger when we consider the contingent liability guaranteed by the local governments.It becomes worse when the default rate of the government guaranteed debts raises. Thus, we must strengthen the local province governments＇ debt management,forbid the debt warranted by local government and establish efficient financing mechanism.