摘要
建立资源约束条件下当代中国城市人口增长模型,应用非线性回归拟合并模拟出发展轨迹,分析当代中国城市化速度和加速度的特征。研究表明:当代中国城市化发展轨迹呈"S"型曲线;速度呈倒"U"型曲线,于2003年达到顶峰,且平均速度比以往其他时期更快;加速度不断减小且在2003年达到零值。之所以出现这些新特征,主要是因为经济增长对城市化的推力和资源约束对城市化的阻力双重作用。
The urban population increase model in contemporary China population under resource constraints is constructed.Then the urbanization development trajectory is approximated by non-linear regression,and simulated.The speed and the acceleration rate of China＇s urbanization are analyzed.The result shows that China＇s urbanization development trajectory is itself an S-Curve,the speed trajectory is itself a converse U-Curve,and the speed increases to peak value in 2003 and the average speed is faster than any previous era.The acceleration rate gradually decreases and becomes zero in 2003.These new characters may owe to diplex effect of both driving force of economy growth and the resistance of resource restriction.
出处
《系统管理学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第6期925-930,共6页
Journal of Systems & Management
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71073125)
陕西省哲学社会科学重点研究基地资助项目
关键词
城市化
非线性回归
发展轨迹
特征
资源约束
urbanization
non-linear regression
development track
character
resource restriction
