汉江中下游洪水风险快速评估

Rapid assessment on flood risk of Mid-Lower Hanjiang River

以汉江中下游杜家台蓄滞洪区为例,采用依托专家知识和经验的快速风险评估方法和Risk Plan模型软件,估算了模型社会经济参数,建立了研究区域洪水风险评估模型,对防洪工程措施的合理性和有效性进行了综合评估。结果表明,虽然受限于经济社会等数据缺乏及其不确定性,本方法仍可简化、量化洪水风险各因素、各区域的影响,从风险的角度分析工程的年化效益。本模型方法可行,对防洪措施方案的拟定或防洪项目的经济评价等工作具有重要的应用价值。

By taking Dujiatai Flood Diversion and Storage Area for Mid-Lower Hanjiang River as the study case,the social-economic parameters for model are estimated based on the relevant expert knowledge and empirical rapid risk assessment approach as well as the software of Risk Plan,and then the flood risk assessment model for the study area is established; by which a comprehensive assessment is made on the rationality and effectiveness of the engineering measures for flood control therein. The result shows that although it is limited by the insufficient of social-economic data and their uncertainties,this approach can simplify and quantify the impacts of all the flood risk factors and all the sub-areas,moreover,analyze the annualized benefits of the projects concerned. The approach of this model is found feasible and the result shows an important application value for the development of flood control measures and the economic evaluations for flood control projects.